» Identifying daily fractions of Technical Traders vs. Fundamentalists in the capital markets... «

How to interpret the time series of chartists and fundamentalists

The fraction of chartists is high at times of crises, crashes, and bubbles. These times correlate with highly active trading periods, thus volatility and trading volume are also high. The subsequent figure points this out by showing (1) the asian financial crisis, (2) the russion financial crisis), (3) the height of the new economy tech stocks bubble, (4) september 11, and (5) the end of the stock bubble. The other way round, when outstanding market influencing events and bubbles are missing, the fraction of fundamentalists is high (see the chart at years > 2003).

Estimated fraction of chartists in the U.S. stock market

The fractions of trading strategies estimated are based on globally smoothed entry data, as this yields much better estimation results. The following figure compares estimations based on globally smoothed (red line) vs. locally smoothed (blue line) data. On interpreting the strategy estimation results on this website, one has to bear in mind the effects of global smoothing: estimation results are altered in the following way, as more input gets available: (1) insignificant intermittent peaks are smoothed out, (2) ascending curves are elongated into history, and (3) descending curves are elongated into the future. The alterations, which are induced by more data increase the precision of the estimation.

Estimated fraction of chartists: global (red) vs. local (blue) smoothing.

This article was written on Friday, 22. in August 2008 Filed under: Basics, Estimation Techniques, Exploitation. You can create a Trackback trackback to this article. Comment on the article and Feed for cmments get automatic updates here.

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